On March 30, 2016, Prof. Andreas Engert of Mannheim University in Germany was invited to come to KoGuan School of Law of Shanghai Jiao Tong University to give an academic lecture entitled "Do lawyers know uncertainty when they see it?" to our faculty. Chaired by Associate Professor Zhuang Jiayuan, Professor Peng Chengxin, teacher Xiao Jun, teacher Chen Yunxi, some masters, and doctoral students attended the meeting.
Prof. Andreas Engert elaborated on the significance of how lawyers can predict court decisions. It not only conforms to the current research trend, but also helps the legal person's prediction results. It also provides a detailed theoretical research model. Because the uncertainty of the law application comes from the random error of the legal standard applied by the referee, the legal person's variance of the result of the case is relatively scattered. The theoretical model can be used to investigate the influencing factors of the legal person's predicted value. Among them, the legal person's own judgments on the case are very important influencing factors. This "consensus effect" does not come from cognitive bias but from the limitations of applicable legal standards. Prof. Andreas Engert also validated the theoretical model with experiments. He chose 215 law school students’ judgments about the applicable standards of four different cases, which largely confirmed the prediction of the model.
In the communication session, Prof. Andreas Engert discussed with our faculty on the construction of theoretical models and the design of related experiments. The atmosphere of the interactive forum was hot. At the end of the lecture, Professor Peng Chengxin fully affirmed many new enlighten elicitation from carrying out legal studies from the view of economic analysis. He once again praised Professor Andreas Engert for his contributions and achievements in the field of law and economics, and encouraged his students to try out the new research methods in their own researches. Once again, we are grateful for Professor Andreas Engert's arrival. The seminar ended in the warm applause!